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In the Winter-Spring 2026 issue of Executive Global, I explained that the monetary metals were engaged in a massive and accelerated phase of their ongoing bull trend, and also that silver had shifted to an outperform status on the upside vs. gold. This is after more than a decade of being vastly, historically undervalued, and underpriced to gold. That status is now changing, and dramatically.
One major example of silver’s underpricing during its half century of capped-off price range, is that its valuation vs. gold in 1980 was at 6.5% (silver’s price expressed as a percent of gold’s) and in 2011 at 3.1%, again when silver’s price reached the upper end of that half-century containment range. Then, over the past ten years, silver vs. gold was labouring in a relative valuation range to gold from 1.5% down to 1%. Did investors think it was going to zero?
That situation began to shift last November to a positive trend, according to our technical analysis, as did silver’s price- which has now taken out a half century of capped price highs. If price has accomplished that, consider the possibility that silver’s value to gold will at least challenge if not take out those prior relative highs to gold. Meaning from the current relative value level pressing up towards 2%, silver could double or quadruple its relative pricing to gold in this accelerated uptrend, just to regain those prior relative valuation highs. Despite the recent violent up/down congestion phase of the past three months in gold and silver, nothing in our analysis tells us that anything has changed—for silver or gold. The upward trend is intact, as is the relation between silver and gold, favouring silver. All we’ve seen is just a rest stop in this process- a period when weak and late longs in the monetary metals were no doubt jolted and many cleansed from their positions.
My assessment remains that silver is in a move to a new reality in price. And that reality will likely be in the $300 to $500 range before it even halts. There are multiple reasons for such a thesis, some based on our long-term momentum metrics, others based on simple monetary degradation and silver’s catch-up to that underlying factor. (The U.S. money supply has increased more than ten-fold since 1980. Consider if silver merely catches up to that lagged reality.) And consider that when a market puts itself into excess one way or the other—such as in a bubble stock market top or when an asset has been at a depressed price level for decades--when it compensates and corrects for that pricing error, it often does so quickly and even overshoots. This is in part what’s underway in silver now.
WE’VE SEEN NOTHING YET!
The recent pullback and subsequent sideways violence in the monetary metals are wrapping up, via our proprietary momentum trend metrics. In fact, with silver’s re-emergence back over $80, just before this article being written, our work defines the corrective process as ending. Major upside is about to recommence. And it’s likely that the next phase will be far more vertical and rapid than what we saw as silver moved out above $50 in October last year.
If this seems like an excessive assessment, consider that such action has occurred in other markets. While it’s not a common market event, there are too many examples of prior underpricing being offset by a move to a new reality, and with extreme speed. There are other markets over the years that demonstrate how this technically shapes up and is accomplished. We show just one here via copper. After decades of living in a price range from $.50 to $1.50 per pound (and with an average price of $1), copper finally closed out a month above that old reality in June 2005. In only several quarters, and with a price pause/congestion during that process- a new price reality over $4 was achieved. Or measured another way, the ratio-scale size of this prior up/down range was doubled, as shown by the log-scale chart in this article. And in the decades that followed the surge high in 2006, copper’s price lived in a new reality.
When assessing silver’s situation and simply applying a ratio-scale size move as working target, we find that its half-century range was a bit more than a ten-fold range from under $5 to $50. Ten-fold above that range high argues for $500 as a working target. Pause and consider why it is that copper and other metals have not been capped in a similar lethargic range going back to the 1970s and ‘80s, while silver has remained capped? Regardless of the reason, whether artificially suppressed or market forces simply made a major pricing mistake as they sometimes do, that’s the old reality.
EXPLOSIVE UPSIDE- AND WITH SPEED
Also, consider the reality of gold since 1975, when it was legalised in the U.S. There have been two major bull trends: from 1976 to 1980, and from 2001 to 2011- both eight-fold gains from bear low to bull high. The current bull trend started from a bear low in late 2015 at $1,050, meaning only a four-fold bull trend. Eight-fold would see gold well over $8,000, just to produce what it’s done twice before. Ho-hum if it does it again. Gold, which is the main monetary metal was not capped- nor were most other metals. Each bull trend over the past half century has vastly exceeded the prior bull market peak in gold. Silver is telling us it’s now going to compensate for its massive error, and with speed.
In summary, silver is declaring to those who listen that the old reality of containment is over. Expect silver to redefine what is now a normal new reality. And don’t expect that process to be incremental, but jolting. Many investors like to see headlines that explain the “why” of a given market move. But it’s more often the case that the “why” is clear only later, at which point many late-comers finally join the trend.
SILVER TO SHINE, WITH BONDS IN PERIL
There will be market headlines and trend events that will come to the fore to further enhance and explain why monetary metals- especially silver, are in a vertical move. And very likely those will soon reveal themselves in a way that will awaken the financial press. Those monstrous wave factors have been building for many years. As I noted in the prior article, the government debt markets, especially long-dated U.S. T-Bonds, are in peril. We know about the Japanese government debt crisis. Now the U.S government debt bubble is on the cusp of a major crisis. My assessment of U.S. T-Bonds says the technicals are ripe for that to begin—and to rattle other assets. This situation has been building for decades and will likely shake the foundations of many markets. That will upend any assumptions about future Fed policy.
Another factor that will likely create unease is the Dollar Index (the U.S. dollar’s valuation vs. other fiats). We know through monetary inflation trends (M2) that all the major fiats are continually degrading in true value. That’s why your grandfather’s house cost $4,500, your father’s $45,000, and now the median U.S. home price is $450,000! It’s not just that the process is increasing, but also coming into play is the dollar’s relative value to other fiats. That trend broke in March 2025 via our long-term momentum metrics, and the Dollar Index has dropped moderately since. However, that decline is ripe for more dramatic downside. This will further inform and alarm investors and analysts that monetary metals are the only viable option. After all, T-Bonds, the old “alternative” asset, are no longer positioned to be safe.
The U.S. stock market is technically in a position for optimal topping via our work, and when that occurs, (at first in layers) money will move out of that category into viable alternatives. Again, government debt won’t be the normal “safe” place any longer if the stock market weakens. That leaves investors with only the monetary metals, and especially silver, which is now emerging from an underpriced vortex. EG